Thomas E. Mann

“America is an outlier in the world of democracies when it comes to the structure and conduct of elections.”

“First, his job approval ratings have been trending down for many months, a trend that has accelerated in recent weeks as the war on terrorism has been supplanted in the public's mind by corporate scandals, stock market declines, and a growing sense of economic insecurity.”

“Private sector labors unions continue to suffer losses in their membership while public sector and service unions grow.”

“Responsibility for overseeing the implementation of election law typically resides with partisan officials, many with public stakes in the election outcome.”

“All of this suggests that while citizens became more comfortable with President Bush after September 11 and thought him to have the requisite leadership skills, they continue to harbor doubts about his priorities, loyalties, interests, and policies.”

“In addition to the decline in competition, American politics today is characterized by a growing ideological polarization between the two major political parties.”

“Partisanship particularly increased after the 1994 elections and then the appearance of the first unified Republican government since the 1950s.”

“A healthy degree of party unity among Democrats and Republicans has deteriorated into bitter partisan warfare.”

“Votes in federal elections are cast and counted in a highly decentralized and variable fashion, with no uniform ballots and few national standards.”

“The country has sorted itself ideologically into the two political parties, and those partisan attachments have hardened in recent years. It will take an extraordinary event and act of leadership to break this partisan divide. I thought 9/11 might provide such an opportunity, but it was not seized.”

“While Republican voters have remained universally supportive of their President, Democrats and Independents are returning to a more naturally critical stance.”

“Party and ideology routinely trump institutional interests and responsibilities. Regular order - the set of rules, norms and traditions designed to ensure a fair and transparent process - was the first casualty. The results: No serious deliberation. No meaningful oversight of the executive. A culture of corruption.”

“Second, the President's popularity has not translated into increased support for the Republican party or for the policies and approaches on domestic policy championed by the President.”

“Incumbency adds a layer of advantage on top of this party dominance. But rather than foster an environment in which members of Congress feel free to buck popular sentiment and wrestle seriously with the problems confronting the country, it reinforces the ideological divide between the parties.”

“But presidential approval also became a surrogate measure of national unity and patriotism.”

“In never-ending efforts to defeat incumbent officeholders in hard times, the public is perpetuating the source of its discontent, electing a new group of people who are even less inclined to or capable of crafting compromise or solutions to pressing problems.”

“With the parties at virtual parity and the ideological gulf between them never greater, the stakes of majority control of Congress are extremely high.”

“The increase in straight-ticket party voting in recent years means that competitive congressional races can tip one way or the other depending on the showing of the candidates at the top of the ticket.”

“Democrats do best in urban centers, Republicans in outer suburbs and rural areas.”

“Redistricting is a deeply political process, with incumbents actively seeking to minimize the risk to themselves (via bipartisan gerrymanders) or to gain additional seats for their party (via partisan gerrymanders).”